Calculating Book Sales from Amazon’s Sales Rank

In the article “Using the Amazon Sales Rank” we discussed how to use Amazon’s search engine and the Amazon Sales Rank (ASR) to compile a bibliography of books for use in the “Competing Books” segment of your nonfiction proposal or for a “Comparative Book Survey” to accompany your fiction manuscript submission.

Reporting actual copies sold of the selected books provides maximum impact for your submissions. Even though “copies sold” data is difficult to find, you can calculate a useable number with the ASR.

Can accurate “copies sold” data be calculated from the ASR? The simple answer is, “No!” But thanks to Morris Rosenthal of Foner Books, reasonable estimates can be made. These caveats must be understood before discussing how this is done:
1)An ASR is for one edition (ISBN number) of an author’s title and does not reflect previous releases in other editions. Obviously the commercial viability of that title needs to reflect the sum of retail sales from all editions – hardcover, trade paperback, mass-market paperback, and special editions. The total sales computation formula compensates somewhat for this.
2)An average of two month’s ASR’s taken at least three times weekly will give a much more accurate ASR, particularly for recent releases.
3)There are large variations between retail sales computed using the ASR and actual retail sales from A. C. Nielsen BookScan in those few instances where this data is available.

Morris Rosenthal developed the Book Sales vs. ASR Graphs shown in www.fonerbooks.com. The first graph plots Books Sold Daily vs. ASR 1- 1,000. The second graph plots Books Sold Weekly vs. ASR 1,000 – 100,000.

Since Amazon reports only on its own sales, a method must be developed to determine total sales through all retail sellers. Rosenthal estimates that the $16.8 billion estimated by the US Census Bureau for 2007 retail book sales is a good $10 billion lower than total book sales estimates from various industry surveys. Therefore:
Total U. S. Book Sales ($26.8 billion) / Amazon 2007 Book Sales ($4.63 billion) = 5.79
Amazon book sales from the graphs x 5.79 = (approx.) Total Retail Sales/Year

Amazon factors sales figures for the five previous years into the ASR, so Total Retail Sales/Year x 5 = Total Potential Sales.

Total Copies Sold From Graph #1:
Sales/day x 365 days x 5.79 Total Sales Ratio x 5 years = (approx.) Total Copies Sold.

Total Copies Sold From Graph #2
Sales/week x 52 weeks x 5.79 Total Sales Ratio x 5 years = (approx.) Total Copies Sold

“Total Copies Sold” computed with this method always produces a lower number than A.C. Neilsen BookScan figures, sometimes by a factor of over two. Therefore anyone using these formulas to compute “Total Copies Sold” can rely on the fact that the number, when used for planning or for comparison, is always conservative.

Rosenthal’s graphs are easy to pick up from the website and to enlarge for easier reading.

Ironically the Nielsen BookScan data is available at most Publishers, but editors seldom do the research. Now you can produce reasonable sales data for them to use when evaluating your book proposal or manuscript.

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Using The Amazon Sales Rank

Amazon’s Sales Rank (ASR) is a powerful tool when searching for competitive books for your nonfiction book proposal or for a survey to accompany a fiction manuscript submission.

Amazon has a very comprehensive search engine for finding similar books, but the ASR puts legs under your selections by allowing you to calculate actual sales by copy to show the competing book’s commercial success. Refer to my last article “What You Need to Know About the Amazon Sales Rank” to get a better understanding of the ASR.

Step One in surveying for competitive books is to spend time determining the search keywords and phrases to use in Amazons’ search engine that define your nonfiction thesis and makes it unique.

For your fiction manuscript develop keywords and phrases based on venue, characters, plot, genre, and themes within your work to find commercially viable competing novels significantly similar to yours. Once you have your bibliography, then you can cull out unsuccessful books using the ASR.

The first thing you need to know about the ASR for books is where to find it. Bookmark this URL 100 Bestselling Books to get the bestsellers on Amazon. The easiest way to find a specific book’s ASR not in the top 100 is to click the Amazon Search dropdown menu and click “Books.” Bring up the book’s webpage by typing in the title and clicking the “Go” button. Searching by author will require that you click on a particular book to bring up its webpage.

Scroll down the webpage to the section entitled “Product Details” Here is an example using James Lee Burke’s new novel, Swan Peak.

Product Details
· Hardcover: 416 pages
· Publisher: Simon & Schuster (July 8, 2008)
· Language: English
· ISBN-10: 1416548521
· ISBN-13: 978-1416548522
· Product Dimensions: 9.2 x 6.4 x 1.5 inches
· Shipping Weight: 1.4 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
· Amazon.com Sales Rank: #65 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)
Popular in these categories: (What's this?)
#1 in Books > Mystery & Thrillers > Authors, A-Z > ( B ) > Burke, James Lee
#2 in Books > Mystery & Thrillers > Police Procedurals
#2 in Books > Mystery & Thrillers > Mystery > Hard-Boiled
You see that the ASR is #65 in Books. You also see rankings in various other categories, genres, subcategories, and subgenres. These illustrate the myriad of possibilities available for keyword searches when you are looking for books similar to your manuscript.

Determining what books to select as examples of successful competing titles requires not only that they are similar in some distinctive way, but also that parameters be established to define that success. Competing books need to be comtemporary – probably released within the last six or seven years. Books with higher than 100,000 ASR are not deemed very successful.

I will explain how to calculate reasonably accurate copy sales for the competitive books you selected in my next article.

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What You Should Know About the Amazon Sales Rank

The Amazon Sales Rank (ASR) is a powerful tool. It determines the commercial viability of any book you might wish to use in the “Competition” segment of your nonfiction book proposal, or for a "Comparative Book Survey" to accompany a fiction manuscript submission. Not only can the ASR indicate how a book ranks in sales to other books, but it can be used to approximate actual copies sold. [Most of the information in this article concerning the ASR was researched using Rampant TechPress and Foner Books.

What Is the Amazon Sales Rank?

Amazon’s Sales Rank establishes a book’s relative number of copies sold to all the other books sold by Amazon. The ASR is a unique number that is constantly recalculated. For example if a book has an ASR of 100,000, then 99,999 other books sold more copies and approximately 4,900,000 books sold fewer copies at that particular time. The ASR is calculated as a rolling figure, and is based on sales over the last 90 days. It is, however, weighted by sales over the last five years to compensate for long-term big sellers after their sharp sales peaks have leveled out.

Rankings can spike due to large corporate purchases or heavy marketing
promotions and are accurate only for the exact time they are calculated. All ASR’s are recalculated hourly. To get a more accurate ASR requires that the ranking be averaged over at least a six to eight week period with two to three ASR’s taken per week.

Does ASR Cover all the Sales of an Author’s Title?

The ASR is based on a single ISBN (edition), not the book title. Therefore, the ASR for a title released as a mass-market paperback ISBN does not reflect the sales of that title as a hardcover edition, trade paperback edition, or special edition. Getting the ASR of all editions for a book title is difficult because out of print editions are not reported.

Does ASR Reflect Total Retail Sales?

The ASR refers only to sales by Amazon. In a later article I will show how to calculate total retail sales from the ASR.

What Is a Good ASR for a Book?

Obviously, the lower the ASR the better, but here are some parameters explained by Morris Rosenthal of Foner Books:
“An average rank of 1,000 (or lower) means you have a seriously successful title; an average rank of 10,000 means you’re doing pretty good for a book that’s no bestseller; an average rank over 100,000 means it’s (your book is) not going to contribute significantly to your income.”

A recent article here, “Create a Market Survey for Your Fiction Manuscript,” explained the benefits of breaking from tradition and including a “Comparative Book Survey” along with your fiction manuscript submission, showing the commercial viability of similar novels.

In subsequent articles I will explain how to compile a bibliography and to compute the number of copies these comparable books sold.

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Create a Market Survey for Your Fiction Manuscript

OK, here’s the problem. You are an unpublished author, and an editor has requested a complete manuscript of your novel. They read the manuscript, and they “just love it,” BUT they’re not sure of the market for the book. There is something a little quirky in the book that the editor likes because of its originality, but will it sell? So they take a pass rather than assume the risk on your work.

Why not head this problem off by including two additional items with the manuscript: a "Comparative Book Survey" and a “Market Survey.”

Nonfiction book proposals have traditionally included a "Competition" segment, but Fiction submissions have never included "Marketing Plans" or "Comparative Book Survey.". Here’s the difference. In nonfiction book proposals the “Competition” segment includes examples of books similar to the submission, but shows there’s nothing out there that addresses your thesis as completely and accurately. The fiction “Comparative Book Survey” is an in-depth study showing that there are a large number of readers that purchased novels with similar style and content to your manuscript.

My agent and I have developed a thesis that if a debut author accompanies a manuscript with a "Comparative Book Survey" showing that a list of authors with similar writing styles and content sold "X" number of books over "Y" time period (This being hard data), an editor can make a more informed decision concerning a manuscript. He or she can take the "Comparative Book Survey" to the Editorial Board along with the manuscript to support their belief in the project. The base problem is that editors do not have time to do this survey themselves, even though most publishers have the necessary data available.

What I can tell you from personal experience is that developing hard data on book sales is quite difficult for those outside the publishing houses. After a lot of time and effort I now am beginning to get the feel for computing book sales from Amazon.com Book Rankings. I’ve been told that A. C Nielsen BookScan is the best source for this data, but it is only available to publishers.

The second approach is attaching a “Market Survey” for your novel. To create the Market Survey requires that you get a sizeable demographically diverse population of readers to read your manuscript and to complete a “Market Survey Form.” Getting some of your friends to tackle your manuscript and then to report on it in glowing terms will not get it done. You will need some bookstore owners, librarians, the educated and the less educated, old and young, professional and trades people, writers and editors, and most of them should not be your friends.

I currently am running such a survey for my novel Vamonos!, and I’ve gone through the process of building an email list of potential readers. I belong to several writing oriented blogs and sites so I’ve posted a call for readers to help me by reading my manuscript. Sites like Book Marketing Network, Book Place, and here at Publishers Marketplace all have readers that are interested enough in the concept to join in the fun. I want about one hundred readers, and I’m not there yet, so here I go:

¡VÁMONOS!
The hilarious adventures of two underachieving Texan C&W musicians who,
in the tradition of Don Quixote & Sancho Panza, strap on their guitars and ride their Harleys into the Mexican Desert on a journey of redemption for sins of the flesh

Want More Information on Conducting a Market Survey?
Email billstephens@satx.rr.com with your name and email address.
You will receive complete information on the Vamonos! Market Survey.

Post a Comment and I will get back to you.

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Tuscaloosa, Glasgow Phillips, and Literature’s Loss

A friend of mine wrote a screenplay based on the book, Tuscaloosa, by W. Glasgow Phillips. The book was published in 1994 by the Plume imprint of Penguin and received massive literary accolades, went into translations, and got a film option. A writing grant was awarded to Phillips who spent the next two years at Stanford University, ostensibly writing.

Phillips was 24 years old at the time the book published and after his stint at Stanford and a short stay in Austin, Texas, he disappeared from the literary scene into the bowels of Hollywood. Never to be seen in literary circles again.

My friend let me read his Tuscaloosa screenplay, the first and only that I’ve read. I liked the script, so I bought and read the book. As writers, we could only hope that any of our stuff that goes to film, comes out the end hewing to our work as accurately.

The book’s accolades were warranted. However good Phillips was at story telling, he was an even better wordcrafter. His writing style was just wonderful reading, laced with poignancy and humor.

My interest was peaked, and I did some research and found that he had a book copywrited and published this year, 2007. The Royal Nonesuch: Or what will I do when I grow up is a narrative nonfiction memoir detailing his life after Tuscaloosa.

When he sinks into Tinseltown, he becomes essentially a porno hustler and any other bottom feeding activity he can scrounge, including writing, directing and acting in the Sound of One Hand Clapping. In this, his first film, he fights off Kung Fu warriors, using only his genitalia.

He also wrote, directed and acted in a snuff film. Reading this, I was so repulsed I failed to remember I had suffered through Tarratino’s Hostel a few weeks ago. The only difference being that Hostel was obviously a drama while Phillips’ Human Number purported to be real. A first person POV snuff film, shot hand-held while the protagonist did his dastardly deeds, was to be screened on the Internet News Year’s Eve, 2000. The idea being that interest from newscasts and Internet freaks would spread the word and force it into distribution a la Blair Witch Project. To his credit he scrapped the project after it was edited, when his dad objected to the idea. A major porno distributor also turned thumbs down, saying, “We wouldn’t touch that.”

Some of his socially unredeeming projects like CRAPtv, Orgazmo, and a few others are out there on the Internet. He also directed Undead 0r Alive, a zombie western that got it’s premier in Austin’s SxSW Festival, and by all accounts was so bad it never reached theaters again. It seems that it was neither horrorific nor funny.

At a point late in his memoir, I was completely bummed out by this loser whose every decision was a disaster – socially and economically. How could someone so talented be launched with a breakout debut novel and blow it so badly? But in the end I have to say his memoir is piercingly honest, humorous, if unapologetic. He loves and cares for his mother whose dying of cancer, and he’s rid himself of much of his baggage. He’s worked as a writer for South Park and other TV stuff. So I feel a little more kindly toward him. His story might make a better film than Tuscaloosa.

With all the struggling fiction writers out there dying for a break, it’s hard to imagine why someone so talented doesn’t cut out the crap and crank out some more great fiction.

By the way, my friend is not a “wannabee” in Hollywood. He earns his keep as a film production designer. Any producers out there looking for a worthwhile property should chase down the screenplay, Tuscaloosa.

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New York, New York and Other Cultural Myths
originally posted: March 1, 2007

My agent, Nancy Ellis, a Californian, is in New York the first two weeks of March, pitching my second novel. I learned also today that a friend had moved to New York to take over a public relations firm. The combination of these two migrations sent me reeling back through my New York Memories.

A couple of decades ago I was in New York for a dinner meeting with the Food and Beverage Director of a potential airline client for my airline catering business. I finished dressing early and picked up a “what’s happening in NY” kind of magazine in the room. A piece on cozy little New York bars talked about Chumley’s 86 in Greenwich Village. The writer pointed out Chumley’s was called the “no name bar” because it didn’t have an exterior sign – a holdover from it’s speakeasy days. Still with time to spare, I went downstairs and out on the sidewalk to “New York up,” so to speak.

Note: There’s no time here to philosophize about the love/hate New York syndrome that bothers both New Yorkers and outlanders. I’ve just never bought into all that “if you can make it here, you can make anywhere” New York stuff.

I stepped into a cool, clear January, Manhattan evening. Standing toes-to-curb, I was captivated by a city sparkling as gloriously as its post cards. A man like myself, standing curbside in an out-of-style overcoat, looking up at the buildings is a beacon to any alert New Yorker. I barely noticed the approach of the battleship class limousine. Purring noiselessly, it docked curbside with the driver’s window squarely abeam.

"Need a lift, sir?" asked the driver in full dress chauffeur's uniform.

Under normal circumstances I would answer in one word, but the enormity of this situation was too much for an outlander. "Well, I didn't set out to get a limo." I said with as much poise as I could muster.

"Be glad to take you anywhere." The accent was Caribbean, the smile genuine.

"You're kidding of course," I replied, "limos don't cruise for rides— do they?"

"Sure do," the smile was infectious.

"Most cities require 24 hour notice for a limo to keep them from competing with cabs."

"City likes us to cruise during rush hours – not enough cabs, ya know.” I doubted it was true, but that’s ok.

At that moment my guests walked up behind me, "Well, are you ready for a big night, Bill?"

"Sure thing, hop in." I smiled and gestured toward the limo. They froze in there tracks. It was oneupmanship of prodigious proportions. The driver was already opening the door to a cavernous luxury seldom afforded the common taxi rider.

"You’re kidding, right?"

"Not at all." I smiled. “I’d like you to meet my driver . . .”

“Your driver?

“Of Course.”

"Neville. Neville Comma, sir." Flawless timing as the driver bowed slightly to my guests.

Ensconced in the luxury of the limo, I caught Neville’ s eye in the rearview mirror. “Neville, would you confirm our reservations with Tre Scalini.” He nodded, picked up the phone, and instead, quietly called to get directions to Tre Scalini.

“Tre Scalini! That’s one of my favorite restaurants,” exclaimed my guest’s wife. He had the questioning look of a man wondering when we had discussed favorite New York restaurants.

Exiting the limo, I hung back from my guests. “Neville, I’m a poor man, what is this costing me?”

“Tell you what. I’ll go cruise for some more rides and come back about 10:45 to pick you up.” He grinned that big Caribbean grin. “I’ll just charge you $125.00 for the whole evening.”

“Done.”

After a gastronomic extravaganza and an expense account debacle, we were once again enjoying the limo life. “It seems early. How about having a drink at Chumley’s 86 down in the village.” I nodded to Neville who instantly grabbed up the phone, asking for directions in hushed tones.

“Chumley’s 86?” My guest and his wife looked at each other and shrugged.

“Yeah. It’s a cozy little place with a fireplace. Kind of interesting, really. It’s called the No Name Bar because they have no street sign – a holdover from it’s speakeasy days.”

Now they looked at each other with that “how does he know so much about New York” look.

When we later closed Chumley’s, our table had grown to include my two guests, Neville, three ex-Bostonite young lion investment bankers who complained from the next table that there were no girls in New York, and the six lovely young ladies I had invited to join us, proving there actually are girls/women in New York.

Did I get the contract? Of course. So what’s so tough about New York?

Epilogue

Neville it turned out was a wonderful person and a down home philosopher of some note. I always looked him up on subsequent New York Trips. On one occasion I was seated with Neville and two Texas friends at the front window table of a small deli. The sidewalk was packed with people hurrying in both directions.

I pointed out at the crowded sidewalk. “Neville, look at all those people. Why don’t they get out of here, go somewhere, and get a life?”

He leaned back, looking at the ceiling. “New York is a pretty easy place to be. You can always make somethin’ off a somebody.” He paused for a moment. “Actually, New York is like a giant University. Folks come here and learn stuff, then they get on back to where they come from. But they gotta be careful, ‘cause New York’ll getcha if ya don’t watch out.”

I guess that about sums it up.

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A Waist Is a Terrible Thing to Mind -- "I Shall not Want"
originally posted: January 7, 2007

I started writing about wine, and later about food, for two reasons. The editor of The San Antonio Light, Hearst’s local newspaper, was a regular at my restaurant. He stopped me in the restaurant one night and asked me to consider writing a weekly column about wine.

The second reason was the problem my dad had keeping his ego intact after retiring as the CEO of a sizeable company. I decided this would not happen to me. I would become a writer as a continuing activity to shore up my ego at the end of my commercial life. Wrong! If you’re reading this, you know the horrible rejection an aspiring writer suffers.

Interestingly, when I started writing about wine and food for the newspaper, everybody wanted to be my friend – at least those who sold wine or cooked food. I was a freelance writer with other business endeavors and a limited amount of free time. Still invitations from wine vendors and restaurants inviting me to multi-course meals, served with many extravagant wines, poured in. I found that I could do high-calorie lunches and dinners several times weekly by accepting all the invitations. I owed it to my readers.

My maternal family always carried a lot of weight around, and I was no exception. Ponderousity plagued me from marriage. Factor-in all my newfound friends with their caloric invitations, and my clothes began shrinking. A little bite here, a little sip there, just the tiniest drop more, and – whamo! – I looked like the Michelin Man. Even the most passionate amateur foodies and winos attend extravagant dinners only occasionally.

I found myself chewing my way through two wine-sodden multiple course meals on many days. The lucky professional and amateur gourmands shed their excesses as quickly as they are indulged. My excesses hung around long enough to be assessed ad valorum taxes.

Tired of people asking me the location of nearest Michelin Tire store, I showed up on the doorstep of The Obesity Risk Factor Clinic. With a name like that you leave the place like it was a whorehouse, looking in every direction for anyone who might recognize you. Add to this their pronouncement that I was “morbidly obese.”

The Obesity Risk Factor Clinic had a great weight loss plan; you simply give up eating and drinking. The program is guaranteed. In place of meals they give you three little packets of powder. Three times a day you stir one into a glass of water and drink it. Somehow these miracle powders were supposed to completely satisfy any cravings that arise from not eating and drinking. They needed to rethink this idea, as I started eating the packets after pouring the powders into the water.

Vintner diners, wine tastings, eight course chef’s menu-preview dinners, and such were now out. I would decline these until I fit through a normal width door. My resolve lasted until a friend came to town to show off his new vintage wines in the Four Seasons Hotel restaurant. Today Paul Draper is the big cheese in Ridge Vineyards, but back then he was the winemaker. I respected Paul for his wines, as a person, and as a great storyteller. Ridge’s sales manager and local broker were both good friends, and they convinced me I had to go to Paul’s vintner dinner. Besides it was only going to be eight courses – accompanied by the full line of Ridge wines including the much sought after Ridge Montebello Cabernet Sauvignon.

I called two people before the event. The first was John Indrurie, Food and Beverage Director of the Four Seasons Hotel, and asked that he serve me only a glass of water into which I would pour my packet of powder, and that would be my dinner. Oh, and could he provide me with a dump bucket so I could spit out the wine after tasting it.

The second call was to the Almighty for assurance, strength of will, and succor. For hours before the event I closeted myself and read the 23rd Psalm. "The Lord is my shepherd, I shall not want.” Now this is a thought the morbidly obese can hang onto. Armed with a packet of miracle powder and this thought, I sallied forth.

Seated at the table I felt rather self-assured, I had my powder and, as requested, a glass of water. The first course was served before I could pour my powder into the water. I repeated to myself, “The Lord is my Shepard and I shall not want.” Not true! I wanted it all. Even the centerpiece was looking good.

"He maketh me to lie down in green pasta.” Whole shrimp, mussels, and clams in a garlic cream sauce over spinach fettuccini. Give me a break! Well, maybe a little, before my powder.

"He leadeth me beside the still white wine." I really do owe it to my readers to report on Paul’s new creations . . . and spitting them out might be misunderstood. After all, there's only a few hundred calories in a glass of wine, right?

"He restoreth my sole." Unbelievable! Sautéed Dover Sole with Lemon Capers. Get thee behind me Satan.

"He leadeth me in the paths of roast duck." It's common knowledge that oriental dishes like Roast Duck with Stir-Fry Vegetables are very low in calories . . . maybe just a morsel.

"Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no veal dish." I can't believe this! Medallions of Veal in Morel Sauce . . . of course, veal is noted for its lack of animal fat . . . “Would you pass the veal, please?”

“Thy Lobster Raviolis they comfort me. Thou preparest a table before me." Now this is going too far!
"My cup runneth over." What the hell, I might as well have the red wine. “May I have another glass of Montebello, please.”

"Surely gobbiness and morbidity shall follow me all the days of my life, and I shall dwell in the house of the lard forever."

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During the last twenty years Bill Stephens has written over 1,000 weekly columns and features on wine, food, travel, and outdoors for Murdoch, Harte Hanks, and Hearst newspapers. His features and contributions have appeared in national periodicals like Chef, Wine Spectator, Wine News, Wine Enthusiast, Field & Stream, and Food & Wine. He has published two short stories “The Decanter, A Christmas Story” and “Toby Tire and His Erratic Curve Ball”

At one point during his three-decade food service career, he concurrently owned and operated a leading white tablecloth restaurant, three airline in-flight kitchens, three employee feeding facilities, catered a dinner train, and his company was third largest full service off-premise caterer in South Texas.

Stephen’s catering clients included Texas governors, presidential candidates, the family of the King of Saudi Arabia, The Prince of Wales, Pope John Paul II, Tom Jones, Neal Diamond, Willie Nelson, and many other notables.